Oscar Night is the one evening when all the world suddenly becomes focused on the movies, including the people who don’t go to them every week, or even every month. What follows is an Oscar guide for everyone: for the savvy fans and the casual ones–and even those few who don’t know “Chicago” from “Nowhere in Africa.”
Best picture
PROBABLE WINNER: “Chicago” (Rob Marshall, director; Miramax). This year’s heavy Oscar favorite, a big glamorous, ultra-glitzy throwback to the Golden Age of movie musicals, the wartime ’40s’ crime comedy “Roxie Hart” (source of the story) and the ’70s era of “Cabaret” and the late choreographer/director genius Bob Fosse (source of the style). A rousing show, it’s a cynical Cinderella tale about the corrupt links between show biz, the press and the law.
MY PICK: “The Pianist” (Roman Polanski, director; Focus Features). This portrait of the Holocaust is seen through the eyes of a real-life Warsaw Jewish classical pianist who lives through terror and becomes a clear-eyed witness to the 20th Century’s primal historical nightmare.
“Gangs of New York” (Martin Scorsese, director; Miramax). Scorsese’s beautifully filmed, poisonously dark and obsessive noir epic of the 19th Century Manhattan Irish and nativist gangs–a three-decade labor of love based on Herbert Asbury’s 1928 history. A masterpiece that many dislike, packed with cinematic virtuosity, but also typically violent and dark on people and society.
“The Hours” (Stephen Daldry, director; Paramount/Miramax). A shiningly virtuosic all-star adaptation of Michael Cunningham’s three–part novel, set in modern Manhattan, postwar Los Angeles and ’20s Britain, where three women (including writer Virginia Woolf) live or relive the problems and implications of Woolf’s day-in-the-life novel “Mrs. Dalloway.”
“The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” (Peter Jackson, director; New Line). The second part of Jackson’s elaborate film of the J.R.R. Tolkien great trilogy interweaves Frodo’s quest for Mordor–the troublesome ring’s lair–with the furious battle of Helm’s Deep. A literate, exciting movie adventure fantasy.
Best actor
PROBABLE WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”). As Bill “The Butcher” Cutting, a ferocious portrayal of the partly fictional boss of the nativist pre-Civil War New York gangs–a bloody dandy, calmly eloquent and murderously malevolent.
MY PICK: Jack Nicholson (“About Schmidt”). As Warren Schmidt, Jack’s funny, tear-jerking role as a recently retired and widowed Omaha actuary–a frustrated, lonely man traveling by Winnebago to a Denver family wedding.
Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”). As Wladyslaw Szpilman, the young Polish-Jewish classical pianist, who lives through the Holocaust, suffers and, survives.
Nicolas Cage (“Adaptation”). As a pair of twins–the neurotic, writing-blocked real-life scribe Charlie Kaufman and his (fictitious) genial, untalented but maddeningly successful brother Donald.
Michael Caine (“The Quiet American”). As Thomas Fowler, novelist Graham Greene’s semi-surrogate, the cynical, disillusioned British war correspondent.
Best actress
PROBABLE WINNER: Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”). As Virginia Woolf, another real-life artistic great: the brilliant, remarkable, but dangerously vulnerable British novelist seen in the fire of creativity and the throes of final suicidal depression.
MY PICK: Julianne Moore (“Far From Heaven”). As Cathy Whitaker, who is both a prime ’50s movie archetype and a living, breathing human: the repressed New England housewife whose impeccable world falls apart when her husband’s homosexuality surfaces and an interracial romance beckons.
Salma Hayek (“Frida”). As Frida Kahlo, the real-life Mexican painter and feminist icon: a crippled, hirsute, adventurous, promiscuous artistic genius.
Diane Lane (“Unfaithful”). As Connie Sumner, the live-wire erotic portrait of a seemingly happy White Plains wife driven into a reckless affair with a sexy Manhattan bookseller.
Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”). As Roxie Hart, the murderous ingenue: an ambitious gal who parleys notoriety as an accused killer into media fame and show biz opportunity.
Best supporting actor
PROBABLE WINNER: Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”). As John Laroche, the Everglades “Orchid Thief” of the book Charlie Kaufman tries to adapt: a part-real, mostly faked gap-toothed, Caliban-like, force of nature.
MY PICK: Christopher Walken (“Catch Me if You Can”). As Frank Abagnale Sr., the poignantly fallen, sweetly wistful businessman father of one of America’s legendary con artists and bad check passers.
Ed Harris (“The Hours”). As Richard, the gay New York poet-novelist dying of AIDS, whose destiny is intertwined with two of “The Hours'” three women.
Paul Newman (“Road to Perdition”). As John Rooney, the patriarchal, old school Kansas City gang lord, a silken killer who pursues protege hit man Tom Hanks, for killing his psycho son.
John C. Reilly (“Chicago”). As Amos Hart, Roxie’s cuckolded schmo of a husband, who sticks by his wife (mostly), through the good, the bad and the worse.
Best supporting actress
PROBABLE WINNER: Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”). As Velma Kelly, the hot-tempered chanteuse-dancer whom Roxie idolizes, copies and finally meets as a fellow murder suspect.
MY PICK: Meryl Streep (“Adaptation”). As Susan Orlean, the real-life writer of “The Orchid Thief,” twisted in Kaufman’s script into a sex-crazed drug smuggler’s lover.
Kathy Bates (“About Schmidt”). As Roberta Hertzel, Warren Schmidt’s over-friendly in-law-to-be, a lewd old gal full of California cliches, unsubtle passes and hot tub maneuvers.
Julianne Moore (“The Hours”). As Laura Brown, the discontent L.A. housewife, trying to flee a bland, post-war suburban life that stifles and diminishes her.
Queen Latifah (“Chicago”). As “Mama” Morton, the voracious prison matron and corrupt queen bee of Chicago’s killer lady cell block.
Best director
PROBABLE WINNER: Rob Marshall (“Chicago”). In the tradition of “Chicago’s” late creator Bob Fosse, feature newcomer Marshall directs and choreographs with all that jazz–and more.
MY PICK: Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”). Polanski confronts his own nightmare past, as a Jew in World War II Krakow, by keeping “The Pianist” richly detailed, tense and strictly unsentimental.
Pedro Almodovar (“Talk to Her”). Spanish writer-director Almodovar blends dark comedy and impassioned drama in this portrait of two men bonding as their lovers lie comatose.
Stephen Daldry (“The Hours”). Daldry guides an impressive cast and interweaves three emotional stories with mostly seamless grace.
Martin Scorsese (“Gangs of New York”). America’s finest filmmaker becomes unfortunately controversial with this vast, stunningly cinematic tapestry of urban crime in old New York.
Original screenplay
For a work created for the screen.
PROBABLE WINNER and MY PICK: Pedro Almodovar (“Talk to Her”). A daring script, with a deeply moving climax.
Todd Haynes (“Far From Heaven”). A masterly blend of `50s pastiche and contemporary viewpoint.
Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian, Kenneth Lonergan (“Gangs of New York”). A toweringly ambitious, flawed mix of social portraiture and psychological suspense.
Nia Vardalos (“My Big Fat Greek Wedding”). The much-loved sleeper about the exaggerated trials and humors of a family wedding.
Carlos Cuaron, Alfonso Cuaron (“Y Tu Mama Tambien”). Breezy and unbuttoned, a highly sexy road movie which swerves into anguish.
Adapted screenplay
For a work adapted from another source.
PROBABLE WINNER: David Hare (“The Hours”). Typically spare condensation of the Cunningham novel.
MY PICK: Ronald Harwood (“The Pianist”). Brilliant condensation of Szpilman’s real-life chronicle.
Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz, Paul Weitz (“About a Boy”). Touching look at the bonding of a London rake and a boy.
Charlie Kaufman, Donald Kaufman (the latter a fictitious nominee) (“Adaptation”). A tour-de-force of confessional humor.
Bill Condon (“Chicago”). Neat adaptation of the Kander-Ebb-Fosse musical play.
Best animated film
PROBABLE WINNER: “Lilo & Stitch” (Chris Sanders, Dean Deblois; Buena Vista). Elvis rocks on the soundtrack as a feisty Hawaiian tot bonds with a rambunctious E.T.
MY PICK: “Spirited Away” (Hayao Miyazaki; Buena Vista). Incredible fantasy by the Japanese master: a plucky little girl enters a fantastic world of dreams and spirits.
“Ice Age” (Chris Wedge, director; Fox). Rollicking show of an awesome trek during the last Ice Age to save a lost baby, undertaken by a woolly mammoth, a sloth and a sabre-toothed tiger.
“Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron” (Kelly Asbury, Lorna Cook; DreamWorks). Sentimental tale of a Wild West horse trapped between Native American culture and the pioneers.
“Treasure Planet” (John Musker, Ron Clements; Buena Vista). Weird Disney misfire which awkwardly translates “Treasure Island” into outer space.
Best foreign language film
PROBABLE WINNER: “Nowhere in Africa” (Caroline Link; Germany). Deeply moving real-life tale of a German-Jewish family who flee to Africa during World War II .
MY PICK: “The Man Without a Past” (Aki Kaurismaki; Finland). A wry fable about a homeless amnesiac and his rise from the ashes.
“The Crime of Father Amaro” (Carlos Carrera, director; Mexico). Mexico’s all-time box-office hit but the weakest entry here: a scathing look at hypocrisy and sexuality within the Catholic priesthood.
“Hero” (Zhang Yimou; China). A gorgeous foray by Zhang into martial arts movie territory, starring Jet Li, Tony Leung and Maggie Cheung, retelling the story of “The Emperor and the Assassin.”
“Zus & Zo” (Paula van der Oest; Netherlands). Distantly based on Chekhov, a funny, warm ensemble comedy-drama about a gay heir, his three scheming sisters and the house they all want.
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(Note: For Wilmington’s predictions in the other categories, check the Oscar Night ballot in Sunday’s Arts & Entertainment section.)
