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A burst of mild weather this weekend may set winter’s first thaw in motion. Readings are to surge into the 40s by Sunday. But, the mild air isn’t likely to last. And, studies of this area’s coldest December opens, indicates chilly weather at this point in a cold season appears to have implications for the full winter season which follows. Eight of ten winters following the area’s coldest Dec. 1-10 periods, have averaged colder than normal overall. It’s a trend which appears to be supported by the return to colder than normal temperature predicted next week. Atmospheric “blocking” produced by a pool of warmer than normal air above the North Atlantic is predicted by computer models to persist. It’s a pattern which encourages a “wavy” (amplified) jet stream pattern which sends northwest winds into the Midwest and eastern U.S. with arctic air.

Sources: Frank Wachowski, Chicago climatologist, NWS-Chicago climate archives

WGN-TV/Thomas Valle, Justin Hampton and Bryan Howell

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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.

WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.