Tommy Tuberville grew up in Arkansas, broke into the head coaching ranks at Mississippi and now leads the Auburn Tigers. So that makes him an expert on the national college football scene, right?
Tuberville would have you believe it does.
Recently he griped about how tough he and his fellow SEC coaches have it, arguing that the rigors of SEC play make it nearly impossible to go undefeated.
“Every year, it’s going to be like this,” he said. “Until we get a playoff, the SEC’s going to be on the outside looking in.”
The incredible part is that Tuberville made the remark 13 days after his team lost–at home–to Arkansas. The same Arkansas team that USC beat on Sept. 2. That score? 50-14. And that game was played in Fayetteville.
“I think Tommy does a lot of talking, promoting their situation,” USC coach Pete Carroll shot back.
Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany said Thursday that Tuberville hasn’t exactly earned his sympathy.
“Last year they lost to a Wisconsin team that had lost [two of its previous three] games,” Delany said, referring to the Badgers’ 24-10 victory over Auburn in the 2006 Capital One Bowl. “I don’t want to belittle it, but I don’t think it’s a strong case. Who’s to say the Pac-10 can’t make the same case? Or we can’t make the same case?”
So the debate rages on: Which is the best conference in the land?
Inside the numbers
Conference ratings can be tricky, if for no other reason than the disparity in the data.
While the Sagarin ratings (see chart) have the Pac-10 ahead of the SEC, Big East and Big Ten, BCS analyst Jerry Palm’s complex formula results in this ranking:
1. Pac-10
2. Big Ten
3. SEC
4. Big East
There are some numbers, though, that cannot be disputed.
Since 1998, only two SEC teams have survived their regular seasons without a loss: Tennessee in 1998 and Auburn in 2004.
Pretty tough, huh? Only until you consider that the Big Ten has had only one such team, the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Another indicator is non-conference record. And the SEC would appear to have an advantage (see chart) with its .811 winning percentage, compared with the Big Ten’s .725.
Then again, 36 of the SEC’s 44 non-conference games (82 percent) this season will be played at home.
The Big Ten will play 31 of its 44 non-league games (70 percent) at home.
Top-heavy
ABC analyst Bob Davie doesn’t need to see any numbers. He trusts his eyes.
“Having seen both Ohio State and Michigan in person, I don’t think there’s any team in the SEC that could beat either one,” he said. “So based on that, the Big Ten is the best conference, period.
“You can always have the argument about the bottom teams: Is Kentucky better than Illinois? Who knows? And who cares, really? The SEC has more really good teams but not a great team.”
Davie, the former Notre Dame coach, said the Big Ten is stronger this season because of its quarterbacks, namely Ohio State’s Troy Smith, Michigan’s Chad Henne, Iowa’s Drew Tate (who’s injured this week) and Michigan State’s Drew Stanton. Wisconsin’s John Stocco also is having an excellent campaign.
“It’s fair to say that overall team speed in the SEC is greater than it is in the Big Ten, and that’s why you see top-to-bottom better defenses,” Davie said. “But nobody in the SEC is playing better defense than Ohio State and Michigan. And I’d almost put Wisconsin in that group.”
Another thing that sets Ohio State and Michigan apart from the rest: They’re the only teams in Division I-A with fewer than seven turnovers. Both have six.
Mano-a-mano
So how do you determine which conference is best?
“You’ve got to play each other,” Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese said. “That’s the beauty of the NCAA basketball tournament. There’s no other way.”
But even Tranghese wouldn’t tell you that because West Virginia beat SEC champion Georgia 38-35 in the 2006 Sugar Bowl, the Big East was the better league. Remove West Virginia and Louisville, and the Big East went 0-12 last year against teams from BCS leagues.
“The SEC is a brutal league to get through,” Tranghese said. “But the Big Ten is great league too.”
The only head-to-head game between the SEC and Big Ten this year was Michigan’s 27-7 season-opening victory over Vanderbilt. Not exactly a fair fight there.
And the bowl game battle is a wash. Since the BCS began in 1998, the Big Ten is 11-11 against the SEC, including 1-1 last year. The Badgers upset heavily favored Auburn and Florida beat Iowa 31-24 in an Outback Bowl marred by questionable calls.
And don’t forget, Delany said, that those bowls are played in SEC territory–Florida.
“They’re only neutral sites in terms of the crowd,” he said. “Let’s see them come up and play in Madison or Iowa City.”
Sunday ticket
Under the headline “The Case for the SEC,” Sports Illustrated pointed out that the SEC had 266 players on NFL opening-week rosters, compared with 247 from the ACC and 236 from the Big Ten.
Part of the disparity can be attributed to the fact that the SEC has 12 teams to the Big Ten’s 11.
Here’s another thought: The NFL cares more about pro potential than college achievement. That’s why Northwestern’s Brett Basanez, who ranks second all-time in the Big Ten in passing yards, is merely on the Carolina Panthers’ practice squad.
Sizing up the conferences
The top non-conference records:
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CONFERENCE REC PCT RATING*
1. Southeastern 30-7 .811 78.55 (2)
2. Big East 32-8 .800 77.39 (3)
3. Big Ten 29-11 .725 77.14 (4)
4. Big 12 33-15 .688 73.95 (6)
5. Atlantic Coast 26-12 .684 74.14 (5)
6. Pacific-10 19-9 .679 80.37 (1)
*Sagarin ratings in USA Today
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tgreenstein@tribune.com
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