So you’re reading all these year-end stories and thinking, “What’s past is past.” Wrong. Here’s a roundup of some of the top travel consumer stories of 2007 and how they may rock your travel world in 2008.
– Airfares and hotel rates: In the first half of 2007, you actually paid less to fly than you did in 2006, but that was before fuel prices began to spiral — and those results aren’t in yet. Meanwhile, average daily U.S. hotel rates were up 5.6 percent in early December over the same week in 2006.
American Express Business Travel projects that in 2008 “worldwide airfares are expected to continue their climb [and] hotel rates are projected to experience high double-digit increases in demand-heavy markets,” including up to a 22 percent increase in Britain. (How much of that is the weak dollar is unknown.) It projects airfares will increase as much as 5 percent for domestic, 8 percent for international.
Bottom line for travelers: No escaping this. Look to pay more for the same, unless the economy nose-dives.
– Weak dollar: In 2007, travel to many countries cost more as the dollar sank against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar, among others. The U.S. dollar, for instance, bought about 11 percent less in countries that use the euro, and 1 British pound costs about $2, a decline of about 4 percent from a year ago.
Exchange rates appear stable for now but could change, depending on the economic winds.
Bottom line for travelers: 2008 may be the year to stick around the U.S. or visit a country with a more favorable exchange rate unless $5 for a cup of coffee in London doesn’t faze you.
– Gasoline prices: In mid-December last year, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline was $2.28. A year later, it’s $2.98, according to the American Automobile Association. In Illinois, the average price was $3.03, up from $2.32 a year ago.
Bottom line for travelers: With increased global demand, instability in the Middle East and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, we might look back fondly on $3.03.
– Crowded skies: Our nation’s airways and airports are more crowded than ever, causing record delays. In the first quarter of 2007, 29 percent of flights were delayed, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. August was just as bad. At Thanksgiving, the feds opened up restricted military airspace to allow planes to fly more efficiently, and the airlines and government are looking hard at ways to alleviate overcrowding at airports, especially in the New York area.
Bottom line for travelers: September and October both saw a significant improvement in on-time performance, with a third fewer delayed flights.
– Storm watch: Forecasters predicted as many as 10 hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic season (June 1 to Nov. 31) and guessed that as many as half of them could be strong (Category 3 or bigger). There were six hurricanes (including, in September, Karen, which did not threaten land and was upgraded to a hurricane after the fact).
In early December, Colorado State University issued its 2008 forecast: seven hurricanes, an above-average year (this sentence as published has been corrected in this text).
Bottom line for travelers: Will 2008 be the year when forecasters get it right? Stay tuned. And consider travel insurance.
– Passport delays: Record millions of travelers applied for passports this year in response to new rules requiring the document for air travel to the U.S. from Canada, Mexico and much of the Caribbean. The system was overwhelmed, and processing delays sometimes more than doubled the six weeks it used to take to get the document. In June, the government relaxed its rules until Sept. 30, giving passport adjudicators time to catch up with the backlog.
On Jan. 31, American and Canadian citizens entering the U.S. by land or sea from Canada, Mexico and much of the Caribbean will need to present either a passport or a government-issued photo ID, such as a driver’s license, plus proof of citizenship, such as a birth certificate. In the summer (a date has not been announced yet and Congress is attempting to pass legislation that would change this), all travelers will be required to carry a passport when entering the U.S.
Bottom line for travelers: If you’re planning to go abroad in 2008 and don’t have a passport, apply now (www.travel.state.gov/pass port).
– Frequent-flier miles: Most major airlines this year adopted rules allowing frequent-flier miles to expire if there is no account activity, usually within a three-year (or shorter) period. But you can keep your miles active by using a credit card tied to the mileage program or redeeming miles for a magazine subscription. The bad news: Redeeming miles for seats is tougher than ever.
Bottom line for travelers: Check your statements and make some activity occur or say goodbye to your miles.
– Crowded flights: U.S. airlines will carry a record number of passengers in 2007 if growth from 2006 continues for the rest of the year, according to the Department of Transportation. U.S. airlines carried more domestic and international passengers in the first nine months of 2007 than in the same period in 2006. Available seat-miles, a measure of airline capacity, were up only slightly. As a result, flights have few empty seats.
Airlines in the coming year are worried about fuel prices and whether the economy will dampen travel demand.
Bottom line for travelers: Don’t expect airlines to add a lot of flights — or to find an empty seat next to you in 2008.
– Air passenger rights: After passengers onboard some JetBlue flights out of New York’s JFK International Airport were stuck on the tarmac for as long as 11 hours due to a snowstorm in February, only the most egregious example of several such incidents last winter, a howl went out for a passenger bill of rights. New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer signed a bill in August that would require airlines operating out of New York airports to provide passengers with food, water, fresh air, power and working restrooms on any flight that has left the gate and been on the tarmac for more than three hours. Sound reasonable? The airline industry is fighting the bill, claiming only the federal government has the right to regulate the airlines.
Bottom line: In an election year, expect posturing from the pols in Washington, but don’t count on any relief.
