1. Rays (3): Tampa Bay fans should note the spot atop the standings and nothing else, as the rest of us pause for a history lesson. In the summer of 2003, a Kansas City Royals team that had lost 100 games in ’02 was leading the AL Central by 7 1/2 games at the All-Star break, having won 19 of its last 28 games to go on pace to win 90 games. Tony Pena was the manager, and the team was built around a young Carlos Beltran. It was quite a story — at least until Minnesota and the White Sox bumped the first-half heartthrobs back to third place. There’s no question that the Rays have more young talent than those Royals, but do they have what it will take to hold off Boston and a cast of wild-card contenders in August and September? It’s going to be fun to find out.
2. Red Sox (1): Jason Varitek is officially a mess, which is about as bad as it gets in Boston. A 6-for-59 slump raises questions about all that wear and tear catching up to Varitek. His 2006 knee injury contributed heavily to a late unraveling by the Red Sox. He could really use a strong finish to the first half.
3. White Sox (4): Don Cooper is officially the White Sox’s secret weapon. How do you trade one of your top starters (Jon Garland) for a shortstop and shave 1.36 off the staff ERA? The work by John Danks and Gavin Floyd has kept Sox fans from missing Garland, which says a lot. This marks the first time all season that the White Sox have been ahead of the Cubs in our rankings. If they can stay ahead of the Cubs, they should extend their lead over Minnesota and Detroit.
4. Cubs (2): These fellows should be awfully happy to be home again after a challenging trip to U.S. Cellular Field, San Francisco and St. Louis. The Cubs, who end the first half against Cincinnati and San Francisco, are 33-10 at home, including wins in 15 of 17 since May 18.
5. Angels (5): Let’s see. You’ve got Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. on the roster, and you add Torii Hunter. So, of course, your home run leader is Mike Napoli. The Angels always win, but they almost never do it the way you think they would.
6. Twins (7): Can this last? Probably not. But for more than half a season Minnesota’s hitters have batted .318 with men in scoring position. The second-best team in the majors is the Cubs, at .285.
7. All-Star Game arguments (NR): How can the Cubs win only two more games than the White Sox and have five more All-Stars? How can the White Sox lead the AL in staff ERA and not have a pitcher selected? The questions are better than the answers, as they always are this time of year.
8. Athletics (6): Hawk Harrelson was right to point out how dangerous this team could be if Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez come back to have big second halves. They’re not nearly as deep as the Angels, but could challenge them.
9. Brewers (14): It’s time to take Milwaukee seriously again. The Brewers are 23-11 since May 30 and have a chance to have C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets start 32 of their remaining 74 games. That is, if Sheets holds together.
10. Phillies (9): Philadelphia was 4-11 in interleague play, losing series to Toronto, Boston, the Angels, Oakland and Texas. Yet the Phillies quickly extended their lead in the NL East when they were allowed to play the Braves and Mets.
11. Cardinals (10): Tony La Russa’s message to ownership is that St. Louis must improve if it is to hang with the Cubs. That’s putting a lot of pressure on rookie GM John Mozeliak, but he’s backed by ownership that will want him to look good after running off Walt Jocketty, one of the game’s best executives.
12. Yankees (8): Mike Mussina continues to come up big, but this might be the first Yankees team to miss the playoffs since 1993.
13. Mets (12): Who would have guessed that Johan Santana would miss the All-Star Game in his first season in the National League?
14. Blue Jays (18): When you’ve got pitching, you’ve got a chance.
15. Rangers (21): Historically, these guys haven’t won too many series at Yankee Stadium. They did it last week, with C.J. Wilson outpitching Mariano Rivera.
16. Tigers (11): Once out of interleague play, Detroit has fallen back into its losing ways.
17. Orioles (16): Andy MacPhail could face a tough buy/sell decision at the All-Star break. Baltimore has overachieved to get into the fringe of wild-card contention, but he might get a good return if he deals Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff.
18. Braves (13): The continuing inability to win one-run games could cause GM Frank Wren to put Mark Teixeira on the market. He would be the best hitter available and has indicated he wants to test the free-agent market, with an eye on playing for Baltimore or Washington.
19. Rockies (24): You give up 17 runs and win and anything is possible, including another improbable second-half run. Someone has to win the NL West. Why not the team with the best lineup?
20. Astros (22): It was a good week for GM Ed Wade. Miguel Tejada, whom he overpaid to get from Baltimore, was named to the NL All-Star team and no player body-slammed Wade.
21. Reds (27): A friendly stretch of schedule helped Cincinnati climb toward .500. Bronson Arroyo has won his last two starts.
22. Dodgers (20): GM Ned Colletti is hoping he can get a lift from Andruw Jones. If Jones doesn’t start hitting for power — and why would he now? — then Colletti will be pressured into doing something he doesn’t want to, like dealing Clayton Kershaw for a bat.
23. Diamondbacks (19): How did these guys get off to that 19-7 start?
24. Royals (23): Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria is everything Kansas City’s Alex Gordon was supposed to be.
25. Indians (17): It appears that a team that expected to compete has found itself disillusioned and undermanned, and could be spiraling toward a last-place finish.
26. Pirates (25): In his last big move, former GM Dave Littlefield traded for Matt Morris. Who is first-year GM Neal Huntington going to add at midseason this year, Barry Zito? Carlos Silva? Paul Byrd?
27. Giants (26): With Barry Bonds, 38-48 at the All-Star break a year ago; without Bonds, 38-48 through 86 games this season. Is that the definition of a non-factor?
28. Camouflage uniforms (NR): Good idea in San Diego, given that area’s military population, but they should be banned outside Petco Park. Still, Jeff Cox’s combat helmet was a stroke of comic genius when the White Sox tried it.
29. Mariners (29): Ichiro Suzuki blew it. He had a chance to go to a contender but signed a contract extension last season.
30. Marlins (15): Yes, Florida probably does deserve to be ranked above the likes of Seattle and San Francisco. But the Marlins scored 17 runs in Colorado and still lost 18-17. That dubious achievement deserves special mention.
31. Padres (29): The ex-Cub factor still lives. Just look at Michael Barrett. Who was the last guy to have to go on the disabled list after fouling a ball off his nose? Pete LaCock?
32. Nationals (30): Just when Elijah Dukes had starting hitting, the troubled outfielder suffered a knee injury on Saturday.
