It’s too early to say who will be the first player taken in the 2013 draft — could be University of Florida pitcher
Karsten Whitson
or another advanced college prospect or a high school stud like
Austin Meadows,
an outfielder from Georgia, or
Clinton Hollon,
a hard-throwing pitcher from Kentucky. Who knows?
Whoever does go first overall, five years from now there will be some team that either used the pick to help turn around a struggling franchise or kicking itself for screwing up the privilege of making the pick. Barring a huge surprise, we already should have a good idea which team will get the pick.
With teams having begun the second quarter of the season, the five with the lowest winning percentages entering the weekend were the Cubs (.341), Twins (.341), Rockies (.372), Padres (.370) and Royals (.395).
At this time last year, the Twins, Astros, Padres, Nationals and Dodgers had the five worst records in the majors. They ended the season ranked, respectively, in this order among the 30 franchises: 29, 30, (tie) 26, 15 and 13. The Nationals and Dodgers were decent teams that just started horribly. The others finished about like they started.
This time around, the Rockies are probably the outliers. The bottom still could drop out for a few other teams, like the Brewers, Astros and maybe the Pirates (never count them out when discussing losing teams). But the “race” for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft shapes up as a four-team affair among the Cubs, Twins, Padres and Royals.
So how does the Little Four stack up?
* Ownership commitment: The Padres have funding issues, and it doesn’t help their short-term results that $7 million of the $55.6 million roster goes to
Carlos Quentin,
who hasn’t been on the field yet. The Royals’ $64-million payroll is a big increase from 2011. The Twins have a bigger payroll than the Cubs when you factor in the $22.5 million the Cubs are paying
Carlos Zambrano
and
Marlon Byrd
to play elsewhere.
* Current performance: The Twins are the worst team in this group, allowing the most runs in the majors and outscoring only eight teams. It says a lot for the weakness of the pitching and defense that they are allowing the most runs, because Target Field is distinctly a pitchers’ park.
The Cubs have been the next worst, ranked in the bottom seven in both runs scored and allowed.
The Padres can be tough to score on, especially at Petco Park, but they just lost lefty
Cory Luebke
for the season to elbow surgery.
The Royals should have a decent lineup to go with thin pitching, but
Eric Hosmer’s
slow start has contributed to the lineup underachieving.
* White flag potential: Midseason trades that could strip the roster are a huge consideration in trying to figure how many games teams can win.
The Cubs could be huge sellers at the deadline, with starting pitchers
Ryan Dempster
(10/5 player with full no-trade rights) and
Matt Garza,
closer
Carlos Marmol,
first baseman
Bryan LaHair,
catcher
Geo Soto
(expected back from the disabled list in mid-June) and valuable bench players
Reed Johnson
and
Jeff Baker
available.
The Twins could move center fielder
Denard Span
but can’t expect much return on pitchers
Carl Pavano
and
Francisco Liriano.
The Padres could deal Quentin (sidelined since spring training after knee surgery), closer
Huston Street
(on the DL with a strained shoulder) and third baseman
Chase Headley.
The Royals don’t have many veterans to trade but will get offers for their many power relievers.
* Reinforcements: There’s almost no help coming in the second half for the Twins, which could help in sliding to the 30th spot.
The Cubs will promote Triple-A terror
Anthony Rizzo
by July, if not earlier, and could get a lift from center fielder
Brett Jackson.
The Padres are taking a patient approach with switch-hitting catcher
Yasmani Grandal,
who recently was promoted from Double A to Triple A, but third baseman
Jedd Gyorko
makes Headley expendable. Right fielder
Wil Myers
is pushing for a spot with the Royals, and starters
Mike Montgomery
and
Jake Odorizzi
could help this year.
* Strength of schedule: The Padres not only play tougher teams in the National League West than the Cubs, Twins and Royals face in their Central Divisions but also get the Rangers in interleague play. The NL Central is slightly weaker than the American League Central. The Royals get interleague series against the Astros and Pirates and figure to catch the Cardinals depleted by injuries.
Conclusion?
It’s anybody’s ballgame, but score it disadvantage, Padres.
Right spot:
Scott Podsednik
might not have been lucky to hit a home run that was the difference in the Red Sox’s 6-5 victory Wednesday over the Orioles, but he was lucky to be in the big leagues. The former White Sox left fielder was hitting .203 as a member of
Ryne Sandberg’s
Lehigh Valley IronPigs when the Red Sox made a deal to get him.
The Red Sox have 13 players on the DL, and the seven outfielders include
Carl Crawford
(elbow),
Jacoby Ellsbury
(shoulder) and
Ryan Sweeney
(seven-day concussion DL).
“I’m just happy to be back,” said the 36-year-old Podsednik, whose Game 2 homer was the key hit in the 2005 World Series. “It has been a long haul, but you never know what can happen.”
With the outfield in shambles, manager
Bobby Valentine
moved Gold Glover
Adrian Gonzalez
from first base to right field as a way to fit both
Kevin Youkilis
and
Will Middlebrooks
into the lineup. He’s playing Gonzalez in the big right field at Fenway Park rather than the small left field because it allows him to maintain the same perspective as at first base. Sweeney should return this week, but Crawford and Ellsbury aren’t expected back until July.
True rocket:
The
Giancarlo Stanton
grand slam that temporarily knocked out a portion of the video display of the auxiliary scoreboard at Marlins Park shattered the record for highest velocity off the bat the ESPN Home Run Tracker ever has registered.
Stanton’s blast was recorded at 122.4 mph, more than 10 mph above
David Ortiz’s
mark that had been the leader in the rankings that began in 2006. It was Stanton’s fourth grand slam, which made him the fourth player ever to hit four grand slams before age 23. The others are
Ted Williams, Eddie Mathews
and
Ken Griffey Jr.
“That’s good company,” Stanton said.
The last word:
“Only God knows my swing better than myself.” —
Albert Pujols,
who recently spent time with
Tony La Russa
but said he did not seek any hitting advice.
Twitter @ ChiTribRogers
