* Cabinet approves dissolution of lower house
* Election unlikely to resolve policy deadlock
* Ruling party MPs dash to defect
* Mini-parties scramble to get ready for vote
By Linda Sieg
TOKYO, Nov 16 (Reuters) – Japan is set to dissolve
parliament’s lower house on Friday for a Dec. 16 election that
is likely to return the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) to power with a conservative former prime minister at the
helm.
However, few expect the poll, three years after a historic
victory swept the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to power for
the first time, will fix a policy stalemate that has plagued the
economy as it struggles with an ageing population and security
challenges due to China’s rapid rise.
Political experts worry former Prime Minister and head of
the LDP Shinzo Abe, who polls suggest will be the next premier,
will further fray ties with China, already chilled by a
territorial row over a group of islands.
“They will probably have the same problems of a revolving
door at the top and a weak government that finds initiating
tough reforms difficult and is tempted to enjoy nationalist
grandstanding,” said Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies
at Temple University’s Japan campus.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s sixth prime minister
in six years and the third since the DPJ’s landslide election
win, said on Wednesday he would call the election. He had
promised three months ago to call an election in exchange for
opposition support for his pet policy to double the sales tax by
2015 to curb massive public debt.
His cabinet approved the dissolution on Friday morning,
Japanese media said, ahead of the formal announcement by the
speaker of the house later in the day.
Among the policies to be debated are how aggressive the
central bank should be in trying to beat deflation as the
economy slips into its fourth recession since 2000, the role of
nuclear power after last year’s Fukushima nuclear disaster, and
whether Japan should take part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
a U.S.-led trade pact that Noda favours joining.
Some, however, say the biggest question on voters’ minds
will be who is best qualified to lead.
“The main issue will be whether we should get rid of the
‘incompetent’ DPJ and bring experienced people (the LDP) back,”
said one ruling party lawmaker, speaking privately.
“Or whether because the LDP created the mess, we should have
a stronger more intelligent leader, like Hashimoto,” the
lawmaker added, referring to p o pular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto,
who leads the small Japan Restoration Party.
DEMOCRATS DEFECT, MINI-PARTIES SCRAMBLE
The DPJ took power in 2009 pledging to pay more heed to the
interests of consumers and workers than corporations and give
control of policy to politicians rather than bureaucrats.
Hopes of meeting those pledges largely evaporated after the
first DJP premier, Yukio Hatoyama, squandered political capital
in a failed attempt to move a U.S. airbase off Japan’s Okinawa
island.
Successor Naoto Kan led the party to an upper house election
defeat in 2010 and then struggled to cope with the huge
earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crises in 2011.
With the party’s prospects dim, DPJ lawmakers were
scrambling to defect. The Asahi newspaper said at least nine of
its 244 members in the 480-seat lower house planned to bolt.
Smaller parties, such as the Japan Restoration Party, are
scrambling to try to join forces despite major gaps in their
policies and competition over who would lead the bigger block.
The LDP looks likely to win the most seats in the lower
house poll but a lack of voter enthusiasm makes it uncertain
whether the party and its former junior partner, the New Komeito
party, can win a majority.
“We must achieve victory. That is our mission for the people
and with that in mind, I resolve to fight this historic battle,”
Kyodo news agency quoted Abe as telling party executives.
If not, the LDP will need to seek another coalition partner
either from among a string of new, small parties, or even what’s
left of the DPJ after the election.
That latter option is less unlikely than it might seem at
first blush. The LDP and DPJ lack stark policy differences,
especially since Noda – a conservative on both fiscal and
security matters – took the helm of what began as a centre-left
party in 1996. The party’s membership has been whittled by a
series of defections over Noda’s policies.
