* Syria military using “vacuum bombs”, other heavy weapons
* U.S. sends rebels first guns but Qatar supply flights down
* Conflict still rages despite focus on chemical disarmament
By Peter Apps
LONDON, Oct 22 – On Sunday, Sept. 29, President Bashar
al-Assad declared to the world, via an interview on Italian
television, his resolve to clear Syria of chemical weapons –
accepting a Russian-brokered deal to avert punitive U.S. action.
That same morning his forces appear to have dropped some of
the most powerful conventional weapons yet used in the civil
war, in the rebel-held town of Raqqa. Evidence at the scene and
witness testimony led Human Rights Watch to conclude that the 14
dead, many of them children, were killed by “vacuum bombs”.
As his government works with U.N. inspectors to destroy its
chemical weapons, the scale of Assad’s remaining arsenal – and
faltering supplies to his enemies – suggest he need not fear
giving up poison gas shells of the kind that killed hundreds in
rebel areas two months ago and prompted threats from Washington.
Relative armed strength is hard to estimate and is only one
factor that may decide a war that has divided Syria on sectarian
lines and drawn in rival foreign powers. But Assad’s use of such
powerful weaponry while international attention is on his
chemical disarmament underlines the difficulties facing the
rebels – and their Western allies who want to force him out.
Air traffic data suggesting Qatar may have stopped shipping
arms to Assad’s opponents, and other evidence of supply problems
for the rebels despite a U.S. pledge to help, may also help
explain recent government gains. Western fears of Islamists in
rebel ranks complicates efforts to arm other opposition groups.
“As worries grow over Islamist influence, the rebels seem to
be struggling more than they were to get supplies,” said David
Hartwell, an analyst at IHS Jane’s. “At the same time, the
government are throwing in everything they’ve got.”
VACUUM BOMBS
Thermobaric or fuel-air explosives, known as vacuum bombs,
are a small but fearsome part of the conventional array of
artillery, tanks and aircraft Syrian troops have deployed since
hostilities broke out in the wake of street protests in 2011.
Like much of Assad’s equipment, experts believe the bombs
that hit Raqqa were Russian-made. Similar to devices in U.S.
stocks, they detonate a cloud of vapour above the ground with a
massive blast that sucks in oxygen from a wide area. That kills
people in a variety of ways, including by rupturing their lungs.
Used by Russian troops in Chechnya and Americans against the
Afghan Taliban, critics say such bombs are too likely to kill
civilians to be used in the mainly urban battlefields of Syria.
That has not deterred Assad’s forces, which deny having used
chemical weapons, from using vacuum bombs on several occasions,
according to opposition activists and independent observers who
track online videos and other accounts of the fighting in Syria.
Recent evidence of Syrian forces dropping improvised “barrel
bombs” and other makeshift explosives has led some analysts to
wonder if ordinary supplies are short. But one of the biggest
arsenals in the region, intended to both fight Israel and local
insurgents, seems unlikely to be exhausted any time soon.
In the three years before fighting broke out, the U.S.
Congressional Research Service estimates, Syria agreed more than
$5 billion in arms purchases, most from Russia. Many experts
believe Russia and Iran have provided more since including spare
parts to keep radar, jets and other systems running.
Syrian artillery batteries have sustained barrages on rebel
areas lasting for days. In August, as well as the poison gas
attacks near Damascus which the government blamed on rebels, the
opposition said the Syrian army fired phosphorus and similar
agents that burned the skin of civilians hit by it.
The military has also used vacuum bombs before, experts
monitoring the conflict say. The attack at Raqqa most likely
involved Russian-made ODAB munitions, Human Rights Watch said.
“While the world tries to bring Syria’s chemical weapons
under control, government forces are killing civilians with
other extremely powerful weapons,” said Human Rights Watch
researcher Priyanka Motaparthy.
The ODAB-500 PM was named last month by arms control group
Action On Armed Violence among “Syria’s Dirty Dozen” – explosive
weapons too powerful or imprecise to be used in populated areas.
It also cited the T-72 tank, the world’s biggest mortar the
M240 and Grad rockets. Most such munitions have been used by
Assad’s forces, though rebels have captured and fired some – as
well as employing guerrilla tactics like suicide truck bombs.
REBEL PROBLEMS
Assad’s troops appear on the back foot in some parts of the
country, particularly the east. The Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights says 47,000 soldiers and militia fighters loyal to Assad
have been killed since 2011, 40 percent of all the war’s dead.
But the government has made significant gains, particularly
in areas around Damascus that are crucial to its survival.
Several rebel commanders have told Reuters the hunt for
weapons was an increasingly costly challenge – and a profitable
business for arms smugglers operating from Lebanon and Libya.
U.S. officials say Washington has begun to make good on a
pledge made in June to arm the rebels. But shipments have so far
largely been limited to small arms such as rifles. Some European
governments have supplied “non-lethal” military equipment to
opposition groups, such as radio systems and body armour.
Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have
provided more, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
But disunity among the rebels, including fighting among
themselves, has hampered the opposition. And with Turkey and
Jordan tightening border controls in alarm at the spread of
Islamist groups within Syria, shipments are getting harder.
In the first few months of this year, air traffic control
data obtained by the Swedish International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI) and shown to Reuters showed several flights a
week to Turkey by Qatari air force C-17 transport aircraft.
But there have been only three in total since the start of
August, said SIPRI. It believes the planes carried weapons,
including possibly Chinese-made FN-6 anti-aircraft missiles and
HJ-8 anti-tank rockets, which appeared in Syria at that time.
In recent months, Saudi Arabia has taken a lead in trying to
organise the rebel military force, sidelining its smaller
neighbour Qatar, which critics said had helped arm Islamist
groups hostile to the West and to the Saudi royal house.
Many weapons arriving now, experts say, appear to come from
rich Gulf individuals smuggling in small quantities – often from
Libya and going to small hardline Islamist, groups.
The U.N. deal on Syria’s chemical weapons, marking a rare
agreement between Moscow and Washington on the conflict, has
prompted new efforts to negotiate a peace at Geneva. But there
seems little immediate prospect of a halt to the warring sides’
efforts to use all arms at their disposal to gain advantage.
