Little in the way of good news has emerged in the month since my last status update. Presumably, if you’re traveling at all, you’re taking regional road trips, not flying, and not going out of the country. But you’re probably at least thinking about when you can next get on a plane without worrying and where you can go without worrying. And, at least for now, don’t believe anyone who says they have those answers down pat. I know I sure don’t. What I do know is just how muddled the current situation is — and is likely to remain for a while.
1. COVID-19 is not going down without a fight. The virus is growing in lots of places with weak restrictions on crowding and travel, and even areas with successful early-round control are facing resurgence. New Zealand, for example, had proudly announced it had stopped the epidemic successfully, but last week had to slap a complete close-down on its biggest city, Auckland. The bit of good news is that some potential vaccines are likely to be available sooner than anyone predicted, but so far, none has displayed that it can either prevent or cure COVID-19. Nobody can state a “date certain” for when the risks of flying travel and visiting foreign countries will be low enough to warrant full-scale resumption of normal travel patterns. I repeat what I said a month ago: The fat lady isn’t even in the opera house yet, let alone ready to belt out her love death.
2. You still can’t go to a lot of places, even on a road trip. One COVID-19 restriction map of the U.S. shows only five states without some sort of restriction — either limitations on who can enter or limitations on where residents can travel. But restrictions are a moving target, so check out a current map if and when you decide to go somewhere. And if you’re even thinking about going somewhere outside the U.S., keep in mind that the Canadian border remains fully closed. Although the State Department has lifted its “do not travel internationally” overall advisory, some combination of U.S. and destination restrictions gives you scant choices of places you can go, either openly or without destination quarantine. The Points Guy posts a current table and most listed countries are island and beach countries; in Europe, the only open countries are Croatia and Turkey. Even if planes are flying internationally, you probably aren’t.
3. U.S. airlines are starting to reopen. Currently, they’re flying something like a fifth to a third of their pre-epidemic domestic schedules. International schedules are still down closer to the 10% level. If you do decide to fly, almost all domestic and foreign airlines are now requiring face masks — a few have even thrown people off planes who refuse to comply. Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest are still limiting middle-seat occupancy. Many of the airports and hotels that are staying open also require face masks, although many others remain closed.
4. A whole bunch of your fellow citizens have concluded that the best way to travel right now is to take a road trip to someplace they can stay outdoors. The result is that, contrary to the terrible business at city accommodations, campgrounds and rural vacation rentals are experiencing boom times.
5. My current recommendations to minimize the risks remain as they’ve been for a while:
— Road trips remain attractive. But before you go, check on restrictions, make sure the attractions you want to visit are open, and make advance reservations, as needed at campgrounds, vacation rentals, and attractions.
— Be very cautious about planning a trip involving air travel, hotels, or a cruise. Reasonably safe and unrestricted travel is doubtful for at least a year.
— Most important: Avoid prepaying for anything: Even though hotels, airlines, and cruise lines are trying to lure you to buy with discounts and “no fee” cancellations, they’ll still keep your money. Sit on your wallet until you’re absolutely sure you can make the trip.
— Samuel Jackson’s advice to “stay the $?#$ home” continues to be valid.
