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The president of the union representing 13,000 mechanics at United Airlines said Monday that there’s no guarantee workers will approve the five-year contract proposal hammered out with the help of a Presidential Emergency Board.

The “odds are very close” that United’s mechanics will vote Tuesday to reject the panel’s contract recommendations, including an immediate raise of up to 37 percent, said Thomas Buffenbarger, president of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.

The union objects to a provision in the contract that would require its members to make money-givebacks to the struggling carrier.

Rejection of the proposal–already agreed to by the Elk Grove Township-based airline–could set in motion machinery that would allow mechanics to strike Feb. 20 unless the financially troubled carrier can negotiate a new agreement with the union, or President Bush can convince Congress to extend a cooling-off period.

Union members, who haven’t had a raise since 1994, are being asked to vote on both the contract and to give union leaders authority to call a strike. A simple majority is needed to approve the contract, but a strike authorization needs a two-thirds majority of those voting.

Airline officials declined to comment on the prospects for the mechanics’ deal.

Buffenbarger, seeking to head off congressional interference, warned, “Both the president and Congress should know up front, however, that there’ll be hell to pay if they intervene in these negotiations.”

“That’s not a threat. That’s not a promise. It is a simple statement of fact,” he said.

The union has been lobbying lawmakers since November to stay on the sidelines in the event a deal is not reached.

Extending the cooling-off period could be difficult because Congress is slated to recess on Thursday, through Feb. 26. Congress could act after a strike begins.

Approval of the deal recommended by the emergency board, appointed by Bush in December to block a threatened strike in the 2-year-old contract dispute, stumbled when the board inserted a proposal requiring mechanics to match any wage concession plan agreed to by United’s other unions.

“That’s the biggest issue,” said Tom Reardon, assistant general chairman of IAMAW District Lodge 141-M. Voting opens at 6 a.m. Tuesday at the union’s offices in Des Plaines and also will take place at other union halls across the country. Union officials are saying results won’t be released until Wednesday.

United has been talking to all its workers about a plan to cut $3 billion or more in costs through employee concessions. Although it has opened its books to the unions, it has not said how much it is going to seek from each group.

On Feb. 1, the airline’s parent company, UAL Corp., announced it had lost $2.1 billion in 2001 and had been burning through as much as $10 million a day.

Union officials say that United’s losses have slowed in recent days.

Although many members are focusing on the concession language, Reardon said union members also are angered by a clause in the presidential panel’s plan that allows United to delay paying until April 2003 money owed retroactively to mechanics.

Under the proposal, a top United mechanic paid $25.60 an hour would receive a raise to $35.14 immediately and to $37.54 by mid-2004. American Airlines, the largest carrier, pays $34 an hour.

Although “the wage increase takes us to where we want to be,” other provisions are deal breakers, said Reardon, who said “it’s a coin toss” whether the contract will be approved.