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Not even a quarter of Chicago’s late January/early February daytime highs match or exceed Friday’s 43(degrees) reading–the area’s mildest in 14 days. The last time it was as “warm” here was Jan. 12 when the high hit 48(degrees). It was even milder Friday at Midway (44(degrees)) and the lakefront (46(degrees)). But, atmospheric changes likely to slash this winter’s ranking as the area’s 13th mildest since 1871 loom. Saturday’s moderate-intensity chill blossoms into a full-blown arctic outbreak Saturday night and Sunday, tempered only by the area’s limited snow cover. But, snow showers are likely to produce a dusting or light accumulations by Sunday in Chicago. Residents of the north-central Indiana and southwest Michigan snowbelts prepare for another eruption of heavier lake-induced snowfall Sat. night/Sunday. It’s a cycle likely to repeat in the coming week.

There’s a good deal of wintry weather ahead: 43% of this area’s “normal” snow often falls beyond this date.

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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.

WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.