Things change over the course of a 162-game season. Unfortunately for the Cubs, one change this year is that playing six of their last 12 games against the Cincinnati Reds isn’t as soft a finish as it seemed in April and May.
The Reds played the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and Brad Kelley is under the gun. He’s the advance scout whose report will be of vital interest to manager Lou Piniella and the pitchers who will work against the Reds this week at Wrigley Field.
Cincinnati is not the same team that started the season 30-50, prompting general manager Wayne Krivsky to fire Jerry Narron and give the manager’s job to Chicago native Pete Mackanin.
The Reds have stepped it up in the second half. They have discovered dangerous hitters in outfielder Norris Hopper, shortstop Jeff Keppinger and, more recently, rookie first baseman Joey Votto.
Factor in Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. and Brandon Phillips and you have a dangerous lineup, especially at Great American Ball Park. That’s where the Cubs will finish the season, quite possibly with a playoff spot on the line.
Votto, a 24-year-old from Toronto, batted .294 with 22 homers and 92 RBIs at Triple-A Louisville. He wasn’t promoted until September because Jeff Conine had been acquired in a trade to share first base with Scott Hatteberg.
Votto was only the second-best prospect at Louisville — right fielder Jay Bruce looks like the second coming of Larry Walker — but he has come out swinging for the Reds. Since joining the Reds he has 14 hits, including two home runs and four doubles, in 32 at-bats.
Mackanin has been more impressed with Votto’s approach, and his presence, than the results he has produced.
“It’s too early to tell, but I saw him in spring training the last two years,” Mackanin said. “I have a pretty good idea of what he can do. It’s his quality of at-bats and how he performs defensively.”
Votto opened eyes with a recent at-bat against Milwaukee’s Brian Shouse. The Brewers lefty is notoriously tough on left-handed hitters because he drops down and seems to be throwing a rising pitch at times. But Votto lined a double the first time he faced him. There was no buckle in his knees.
“You don’t make judgments on September call-ups and spring training, because games are different,” Mackanin said. “We’ve all seen guys who got called up in September not do well and have great careers. And we’ve seen guys with great Septembers not make it. Don’t make judgments in September and spring training.”
Hopper, Keppinger and Phillips have established themselves over longer stretches.
Hopper, a 28-year-old slap-hitting center fielder, was batting .388 in the second half, second to the Phillies’ Jayson Werth among NL players with at least 100 at-bats. Keppinger was hitting .339 in the second half.
Phillips quietly has had one of the best seasons in the majors.
The guy Cleveland dumped two years ago is hitting .291 with 29 homers, 89 RBIs and 31 stolen bases. It’s true that he has used the hitter-friendly conditions of the Great American Ball Park to break Joe Morgan’s club record for homers by a second baseman (16 at home, 13 on the road), but he’s hardly a one-trick pony. Phillips also is leading NL second basemen in chances and fielding percentage.
“He has put his nose to the grindstone and works hard,” Mackanin said. “He works hard on his defense, he has power, he has speed, he is an all-around good player, a five-tool player. Any team would love to have him, and I’m just thrilled he’s here.”
Phillips should be in the running for a Gold Glove.
“Winning a Gold Glove would be the highlight of my career,” Phillips said. “Defense is what wins ballgames, and that’s what I focus on, playing good defense. The offense is a bonus.”
Many people expect the Reds to trade Dunn in the off-season to open a spot for Bruce, whom Baseball America named as its Minor League Player of the Year after he hit .319 with 80 extra-base hits, including 26 homers, between Double A and Triple A.
If Dunn can be moved to improve pitching depth, the Reds could jump into the ranks of the Central’s contenders next year.
The lack of a deep rotation is the main concern for Cincinnati, but the Cubs can’t take much consolation in that. They figure to see Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo this week and in the season-ending series.
