(Corrects polling data in New Mexico race, paragraph 27)
* New districts, primary rules fuel competition
* November may see same-party incumbent vs. incumbent races
* More Hispanic-majority districts emerge
* Tight races seen in other states
By Mary Slosson
SACRAMENTO, June 4 (Reuters) – California’s nonpartisan
redrawing of electoral lines for U.S. congressional districts is
expected to set off the biggest scramble in at least a decade
during primary polls on Tuesday in the most populous state.
The new election map could end up shifting seats to the
Democrats in a state that gave President Barack Obama a 24-point
margin of victory over his Republican rival John McCain in 2008,
analysts said.
For a decade, California’s delegation in the House of
Representatives was remarkably stable thanks to the deliberate
creation of electoral districts to favor incumbents, a process
known as gerrymandering. In 263 individual elections from 2002
to 2010, only one congressional seat changed political party.
“California was totally locked in on this gerrymandered
map,” said Kyle Kondik, political analyst at the Center for
Politics at the University of Virginia. “With nonpartisan
redistricting and this new top two primary system, California
suddenly becomes very interesting and one of the more
competitive states in the entire country.”
For the first time, California took most of the redrawing of
electoral boundary lines after the once-a-decade national census
out of the hands of politicians and gave it to a 14-member
“citizens commission.”
It also made a major change to the rules in primary voting,
held to narrow the field of candidates before the main election.
It now requires that the two candidates who get the most votes
will advance to the general election in November, regardless of
party. This means that two Democrats or two Republicans could be
competing for the same congressional seat on Nov. 6.
For the first time since 1920, slowing population growth
meant that California did not add any seats to its 53-member
congressional delegation, adding even more uncertainty by
pitting some incumbents against one another.
“Short-term, this is off the rails, this is crazy,” said
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant in California.
A string of districts in California’s Central Valley,
clustered along Interstate 5 through agricultural land from
Sacramento to the outskirts of Los Angeles, are among the most
hotly contested under the new arrangement.
Seats in the region are currently split evenly, at three
each between Democrats and Republicans.
“In California, if there are districts that are going to
swing one way or another, it is these,” Kondik said. “Just in
that area, you’ll probably see more action in the next 10 years
than you did in the entire state over the last 10.”
INCUMBENT VS. INCUMBENT
Redistricting has also created a “huge leap” in the number
of districts that have percentages of minority voters topping 50
percent, according to Mitchell, with majority-Hispanic districts
increasing from 19 to 29 and the emergence of the only majority-
Asian legislative district in the continental United States.
Two congressional contests are garnering particular
attention for pitting longtime incumbents against one another.
Longtime Representatives Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, who
have similar voting records, are duking it out in a closely
watched race in California’s 30th district, in Los Angeles
County. Analysts say that both are likely to advance to a real
competition in November.
“This primary on Tuesday for them is like a pre-season NFL
football game,” Kondik said. “It’s like a dress rehearsal for
the actual election.”
The same is true of two incumbent Democratic congresswomen,
Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson, who are facing off in the 44th
district in Los Angeles County.
In their quest to win back a majority in the House,
Democrats would have to gain four or five seats in California,
which Kondik said would be difficult but not impossible.
Republicans now hold a 242 to 190 majority, with three seats
vacant. Outside of California and Illinois, Democrats are mainly
playing defense, trying to hold seats they already have.
CLOSE MARGINS
Several other states also will hold primaries on Tuesday.
In Montana, candidates for a Senate seat are well on track
to break political spending records, with donations pouring into
a state where advertising is relatively cheap.
That U.S. Senate battle is one of the hottest in the nation
with Montana’s only member of the House, Republican Denny
Rehberg, challenging first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Jon
Tester.
Both candidates are known across the state and are expected
to easily win their respective party primaries on Tuesday.
New Mexico has another closely watched U.S. Senate contest
after Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman announced last year that
he was retiring after 30 years.
While New Mexico leans toward the Democrats because of its
large Hispanic population, the state occasionally elects
Republicans such as Governor Susana Martinez.
Republicans are targeting the New Mexico seat in their quest
to win a majority of the U.S. Senate in 2012. Democrats now hold
a 51 to 47 majority, with two independents who usually vote with
Democrats.
Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson is expected to easily
win the Republican nomination over businessman Greg Sowards,
said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc in
Albuquerque.
In the Democratic Senate primary in New Mexico, the race is
expected to be more competitive between Congressman Martin
Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas. While Heinrich leads
in the polls, Sanderoff said undecided Hispanic voters will most
likely choose a Hispanic surname when they go to vote.
In New Jersey, primary voters will select among candidates
in the race to replace U.S. Representative Donald Payne, the
state’s first black congressman, who died in March.
Payne’s son, Newark City Council President Donald Payne Jr.,
is one of six candidates running. The elder Payne had
represented New Jersey’s 10th congressional district since 1989.
Primaries will also be held in South Dakota, North Dakota,
and Iowa, but most competitive races in those states will be in
November.
(Additional reporting by Dan Boyce in Montana, Zelie Pollon in
New Mexico, David Bailey in Minnesota, Kay Henderson in Iowa and
Edith Honan in New York; Editing by Greg McCune and Eric Walsh)
