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By Marice Richter

DALLAS, Sept 26 (Reuters) – When Dr. Robert Haley spotted a

dead blue jay lying in his neighbor’s driveway early this summer

he became suspicious. When he saw another blue jay dead in the

birdbath at his Dallas home the next morning, he knew it was a

bad omen of disease.

What he could not predict at the time was that the bird

corpses heralded one of the worst U.S. outbreaks of West Nile

virus on record, with nearly 40 percent of cases in Texas alone.

“It’s unusual to see dead birds lying in the open,” said

Haley, chief of epidemiology at the University of Texas

Southwestern Medical Center. “Typically, birds die in some

out-of-sight place or they are carried off by animals if they

die out in the open.”

West Nile is transmitted from sick birds to humans and other

mammals by mosquitoes and was first detected in the United

States 13 years ago, in New York City. Texas declared a state of

emergency last month after seeing the worst toll from West Nile

this year, which has reached 3,545 total cases and 147 deaths

nationwide, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention. Other states with large outbreaks include

Mississippi, Michigan, South Dakota, Louisiana, Oklahoma and

California.

“From the beginning, I thought it could be a bad year,” said

Haley, who spent 10 years working for the CDC and now lives in

the epicenter of the outbreak. “But it turned out to be much

worse than anyone imagined. It was a public health disaster.”

Experts hope the outbreak has peaked as cooler weather sets

in and widespread pesticide spraying takes effect. Now is the

time to learn the lessons for the future.

GOOD WEATHER FOR BUGS

Five counties within the Dallas-Fort Worth area – the fourth

largest metropolitan area in the country – recorded 28 of the 63

deaths and 869 of the 1,429 cases reported to the Texas

Department of State Health Services by Tuesday. Dallas County

alone has recorded 16 deaths and 371 cases, according to county

authorities.

CDC and state officials believe a year’s worth of record

high temperatures and intermittent rainfall this past spring

contributed to the severity of the epidemic by affecting bird

and mosquito populations. Following a record hot summer and

drought conditions in 2011, Dallas-Fort Worth had a warm winter

with fewer than normal freezes followed by bouts of rain in the

spring, officials said.

“One of the things we are closely looking at is the effect

of weather on this year’s outbreak,” said Lyle Petersen,

director of the CDC’s Division of Vector-Borne Infectious

Diseases. “West Nile outbreaks tend to be difficult to predict.

Why it occurred in Dallas more than other areas is a matter of

speculation at this point, and it’s something that we’re going

to be looking at very carefully.”

In addition, health officials in the region have witnessed

an especially large number of neuroinvasive cases, the more

severe form of the disease that often leads to meningitis and

encephalitis.

Haley estimates that about 25,000 people likely were

infected with West Nile in Dallas County this summer. Of those,

about 80 percent showed no symptoms at all, while many of the

remaining residents came down with West Nile Fever, a mild form

of the disease that is largely under-reported and only

sporadically tested. State figures show only that Dallas County

recorded 168 West Nile fever cases and 154 neuroinvasive cases.

HOPES FOR A RESPITE

Haley and others say the worst should be over in terms of

new infections, but more cases are expected to be reported due

to the lag time between infection, testing for the virus and

reporting to state agencies and the CDC. The death toll is also

likely to rise as it can take weeks to months for patients to

deteriorate.

In the meantime, Dallas residents are still coming to terms

with the ravages of the outbreak, which dwarfs the four deaths

seen in the region in 2006.

With no vaccine to prevent West Nile in humans, the only

defense is prevention – wearing insecticide outdoors and

pesticide spraying by ground and air.

Dr. Don Read, a surgeon in Dallas, who was infected by

neuroinvasive West Nile in 2005 while walking in his Dallas

neighborhood and now runs a support group for survivors, said

people tend to think they are invincible. “I didn’t think I

would get it until I did. It only takes one mosquito bite.”

Read, who was infected at age 63, spent almost five weeks in

the intensive care unit. He now wears braces on his legs due to

polio-like paralysis, but considers himself lucky to be alive.

The sound of a plane buzzing overhead spreading insecticide

in the suburban community of Southlake was a welcome sound to

Ann Dachniwsky, 47, who spent much of the summer so fatigued

from neuroinvasive West Nile that her only activity was “going

from the bed to the couch back to the bed.”

At the height of her illness, her husband and three children

took turns waking her up every few hours to force her to drink.

“My balance and sight were affected so I could barely work

or see. I was flat on my back for weeks,” she said. “I was a

healthy, active person. I’m getting better but I can barely

manage one activity without needing to lay down afterwards.”

Dachniwsky’s family had pleaded with the Southlake City

Council to allow aerial spraying of pesticide for the first time

since an encephalitis outbreak nearly 50 years ago. Dallas and

nearby Denton counties conducted aerial spraying missions in

August. Southlake, which is partially in Denton and Tarrant

counties, was sprayed. Officials in Tarrant County, home of Fort

Worth, chose to spray only by ground.

As the outbreak has slowed, Dallas County health officials

continue to be criticized both for not moving fast enough to

start spraying and also for going too far in the breadth of the

aerial spraying program once it started.

“We had a protocol in place and we followed it,” said Zach

Thompson, director of the Dallas County Department of Health and

Human Services. “We started with public education, followed by

localized ground spraying, then enhanced ground spraying and

finally aerial spraying.”

As research and analysis of the outbreak continue, Thompson

said officials will work diligently to avoid a repeat of

history.

“We were surprised by the magnitude of the outbreak this

year but we feel that our response was appropriate,” Thompson

said. “Hindsight is 20/20.”

(Editing by Michele Gershberg and Claudia Parsons)