Not satisfied with handicapping horses, two years ago I adjusted the dials on my computer and set them for NCAA basketball games. Then I turned the program loose on the NCAA tournament, and it correctly picked the two teams that made the final.
Now, with surprisingly few modifications, I have set the computer for the Super Bowl.
Speed
is the team’s ability to generate points, and first-half points get more weight.
Class
is strength of schedule, strength of conference and victories against playoff teams.
Form
represents the team’s offensive and defensive consistency. The score at halftime and the score at the end of the game both contribute to the form score.
Connections
is the coaches’ winning percentage over the last two years, including the playoffs.
I threw the raw scores the computer generated into a mathematical model to predict a final score. The normalized results are tabled below:
SPEED
BEARS: 2.7
COLTS: 2.1
CLASS
BEARS: 2.2
COLTS: 2.6
FORM
BEARS: 3.4
COLTS: 1.4
CONNECTIONS
BEARS: 2.0
COLTS: 2.8
– – –
TOTAL
BEARS: 10.3
COLTS: 8.9
SCORE
BEARS: 21.9
COLTS: 16.8
Implied in this prediction is the Bears’ defense will chip in at least a touchdown.
Right or wrong, I hope readers will look past the fact I’m picking a bear to outrun a colt.
