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By John Ruwitch

JINAN, China, Aug 22 (Reuters) – The long-awaited trial of

ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai opens on Thursday, beginning

the final, dramatic chapter of the country’s most politically

charged case in more than three decades.

Bo, 64, will appear in public for the first time in 17

months in a court in the eastern city of Jinan, where he will

face charges of bribery, corruption and abuse of power. He will

almost certainly be found guilty.

His trial marks the culmination of China’s biggest political

scandal since the 1976 downfall of the Gang of Four at the end

of the Cultural Revolution.

Bo’s fall has been highly divisive, pitting supporters of

his Maoist-themed egalitarian social programmes against the

capitalist-leaning economic road taken by the leadership.

President Xi Jinping, who is embarking on an ambitious plan

to rebalance the world’s second-biggest economy, will be keen to

quickly put the trial behind him and ensure he has the

unstinting support of the ruling Communist Party.

How Bo pleads to the charges will be keenly watched.

A guilty plea would almost certainly signal he has worked

out a deal for leniency, but he’s likely to plead not guilty to

the abuse of power charge in an apparent bid to show that he is

a victim of a power struggle, according to a source with ties to

the leadership.

Bo, the party chief in the southwestern metropolis of

Chongqing, was a fast-rising star in China’s leadership circles

when his career was stopped short last year by a murder scandal

involving his wife, Gu Kailai. Gu was accused, and later

convicted, of the November 2011 murder of British businessman

Neil Heywood, a business partner and family friend.

Bo’s former police chief in Chongqing, Wang Lijun, has also

been jailed for trying to cover up the case. Bo was furious with

Wang when he was told that his wife was a murder suspect, and

sacked him despite not having party authority to do so, sources

with knowledge of the case have said.

Neither did he report the matter to his bosses in Beijing,

all of which helped lead to the abuse of power charge, they

said.

Bo has also been charged with corruption and bribery, which

state media says relates to his time in northeastern China,

including a period as mayor of the city of Dalian.

Nevertheless he has been seen by his backers as the victim

of a power struggle. Bo’s downfall has triggered heated debate

between his leftist followers, who are nostalgic for the

revolutionary ideals of the Mao Zedong era, and reformers, who

advocate faster political and economic change.

“I think it is very clear for Chinese people so far that Bo

Xilai is the loser of a power struggle but he did something

right at least for the people of Chongqing and Dalian, so he

still enjoys quite high popularity among certain sectors of the

Chinese populace,” said Bo Zhiyue, a professor of Chinese

politics at the National University of Singapore.

“That makes the whole trial very, very difficult.”

ILLEGAL TRIAL

On the eve of the trial, a handful of his supporters

protested outside the courthouse in Jinan to denounce what they

said was politically motivated persecution.

“When comrade Bo Xilai was put under house arrest, it was a

violation of the party charter and when he was handed over to

the justice system it was a violation of the constitution,” said

a protester from Chongqing surnamed Li.

“This trial is illegal. We don’t believe in any outcome of

this trial.”

Bo could face a death sentence for his charges, though it is

more likely he could be given a suspended death sentence, which

effectively means life imprisonment, or a 20-year term.

The trial, likely to last only a single day, will be closely

watched as a test case of China’s commitment to the rule of law,

especially whether Bo will be given a chance to defend himself.

Yet his guilt is an almost foregone conclusion given that

China’s prosecutors and courts come under Communist Party

control and courts have a 98 percent conviction rate.

Analysts say Bo’s trial could have started only after he

cooperated with the authorities, but how he will behave in court

will be a question mark.

“Bo Xilai may not be as cooperative as his wife and you

can’t have a completely secret trial,” said Cheng Li, a senior

fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “I don’t know

how the leadership will handle that dilemma.”

The new administration of President Xi, who formally took

the reins of state power in March, will likely trumpet Bo’s case

as a success in its fight against deep-rooted corruption.

Xi has vowed to fight both “tigers” and “flies” – in other

words people at every level of the party – as he combats graft

so serious that he has warned it threatens the Communist Party’s

very survival.

Bo has not been able to respond to the accusations against

him. In March 2012, at a news conference days before his

dismissal, Bo scorned as nonsense unspecified accusations of

misdeeds by his wife and said people were pouring “filth on my

family”.

(Additional reporting and writing by Sui-Lee Wee; Editing by

Ben Blanchard and Raju Gopalakrishnan)